Sunday, August 31, 2008

bold predictions

Anybody else feeling a little tense about the season? I'm trying to stay calm and not let the pressure get to me, but I feel myself sinking lower with every loss.

It's August 31. There are 26 games left for the Cardinals. That's eight series (plus one game left against Houston). Two of those series are against Chicago. And the Cubs and Brewers have six games left with each other.

The Cubs also have 26 games left, and Milwaukee has 27. Philadelphia will not win their division and will be looking for some Wild Card love. They have 26 games left also.

Here's my hope for the remainder of the season: I'm assuming the Cubs are going to win 2/3 of their remaining games (at least), and the Brewers are probably going to hover around .500 in the last month. Philly will probably not do that well.

There's no reason we can't win both series with the Cubs, and so for part of my formula, we are going to take 4/6 of those games.

The Brewers, obviously, aren't going to do as well against Chicago, and the Cubs will take 4/6 of those games.

That means, of their other games, Chicago will win 11 (of 14). They are pretty much out of reach for the division title, but I don't think they'll make it past the division championship series.

The Cubs will finish at 102-60 and win the NL Central.

The Phillies and Brewers see each other for 4 more games, but we don't have any more with either of our closest Wild Card competitors.

Milwaukee will win 2/6 of the games they have left with the Cubs, and 3/4 with Philadelphia (just for good measure), but they're going to struggle against the Reds and Pirates who will decide they have something to prove in the last month of play (and maybe even have some really outstanding young talent come up from AAA). Cincinnati will take 3/6 and Pittsburgh will take 2/3. Even San Diego will prove too much of a challenge for Milwaukee, and they'll split that 4-game series.

The Brewers will end up at 92-70.

Philadelphia will take 3/6 from Washington, 2/3 from the Mets, and 4/6 from Atlanta, but will get swept by Florida in both 3-game series.

The Phillies will finish the season at 85-77.

The Redbirds, in addition to taking 4/6 from Chicago (cause the Cubs don't really need those four games) will win today in the final of three against Houston, will take 5/7 from Arizona, sweep Florida and Pittsburgh, and win 4/6 against Cincinnati.

We will end up at 94-68 and on top of the NL Wild Card race.

There you go, then. Today, as they say, is the first day of the rest of the season, and if we want to win, now's the time to start.

We're going to need a lot of strong starts from our rotation, a lot of clean finishes from our relievers, and some heavy hitting from the offense. We also need as much moral support from the fans as we can muster, because these are the games that count. Don't give up on the boys yet.