Predictions 2009: Post-season & Awards

Oooh, the fun part. I mean, sure, the regular season is great, but October's what it's all about, right? And even more so if your team gets to go to the party. Of course, these are also the tougher picks. 162 games gives you a pretty good idea what a team is made of because it doesn't allow for a lot of "luck" or "flukes". A team might have a 10 or 15-game run where they get "hot", but things will pretty much even themselves out over the course of the season. A five-game or seven-game series is a much smaller sample size and doesn't protect as well against streaks and momentum. That means that while you can look at statistics and player quality (and so forth) to guage the possibilties of a team having a good season, extraneous factors are much more likely to figure into the equation when you're talking about the playoffs. That being said, it's still fun to try and guess who will be able to make all those factors work in their favor. I presume we should base our post-season predictions on the division winners we named in previous posts, so I'll start by reminding you of whom I like. (Which begins with me reminding myself.) American League.

Division Winners:

East- BOS Red Sox Central- CLE Indians West- LA Angels of Anaheim* Wild Card: NY Yankees. I really like the Twins (I know, I know), but the East looks to be a stronger division than the Central. And when it comes to the wild card, there is definitely a bubble.

ALDS. BOS vs NYY > BOS LAA vs CLE > CLE ALCS. BOS vs CLE > BOS I wish I could give you more, but until we really know how these teams are going to shape up over the season, it's hard to say who's really better. Based on last year, and going by some of the moves the Angels made in the off-season, I'd say they aren't going far into the post-season. Based on my hatred for the Yankees, I'd say the same thing about them. And when push comes to shove, even if the Indians are "this year's Rays", much like last year's Rays, they just don't have the experience to propel them through October. National League.

Division Winners:

East- FLA Marlins Central- STL Cardinals West- ARI Diamondbacks Wild Card: NY Mets. Sorry. Call me what you want, but I'm not giving it to the Cubs. Maybe that makes my predictions "stupid", but maybe they were "stupid" anyway. Ever think of that? Besides which, the Mets went out and got themselves some serious pitching help, and I think it'll make the difference they were looking for. At least enough to get them this far.

NLDS. STL vs FLA > STL ARI vs NYM > ARI NLCS. STL vs ARI > STL Again, it's hard to know how teams are going to react to the pressure and the situation of being in the playoffs, and how all those other factors are going to affect the games, but knowing what we know, Florida won't beat the Cardinals, and the Mets will crumble early. World Series. STL vs BOS > STL Is this an eerie rematch or what? Well, guess what. I'm siding with vengeance and picking the Cardinals. Don't act so surprised. Well, I guess that about does it. Something else? What? Oooh, that pesky MVP. Okay, but first, don't blame me for making this personal, the BBWAA did that looong ago. AL Most Valuable Player ... Evan Longoria. NL Most Valuable Player ... Albert Pujols. Honestly, he could be out half the season with an injury and still be the MVP. More? How about these? AL Cy Young ... Anthony Reyes. NL Cy Young ... Chris Carpenter. AL Rookie of the Year ... I can't pick because as unfamiliar as I am with the Cardinals' prospects, I'm even more unfamiliar with other NL teams' prospects, nevermind knowing what's going on in the AL farm systems. So if you readers have any suggestions, I'll gladly accept them. Otherwise, we'll just leave it up to the rest of the UCB to predict this award. NL Rookie of the Year ... Colby Rasmus. I'm afraid I'd be tarred and feathered if I picked anyone else. Other awards? Who cares? Well, sports fans, Monday is the big day. Are you ready? Got your tickets/seat on the couch? Opening day is too much hoopla for me to attend personally, but I'll be watching every reasonable minute of it on tv. Of course, I heard rumblings of rain in the forecast for Monday, so keep your fingers crossed and knock on wood and don't change your underwear all weekend, and let's all hope they get a game in. *As strange as the whole "fighting over the Angels" name thing is, I still respect their right to call themselves whatever they want. Sure, it takes me an extra 2.7 seconds to say it, but if that's what makes them happy, then I'll do it.

Predictions 2009: NL West

Well, we've done the AL, NL East, and NL Central. That means it's time for the (drumroll, please) NL West. And that means it's time to ask the ever-important question... um, who's left? Not that I don't love the NL West. Really. Let's see, there's the Dodgers, the Rockies, the... Oh, the Pads. ??? No, don't tell me. Ummm... The Giants! And... One more, right? Okay, just one hint. Are they in California? Utah? Iowa? No. I really am at a loss here. Oh, wait... The Diamondbacks!!! Ha! Knew I'd get it eventually. Yes, I watch baseball. What's your point?

And now, my extremely expert and thoroughly researched opinion on how these fine teams will finish the season.

1. ARI Diamondbacks. You have to win the division in this division if you want to make the playoffs, because you can't count on the Wild Card. Good pitching will get them there. 2. LA Dodgers. We're all anxious to see how Manny's 2-year contract works out for the Streetcar Dodgers, and unfortunately for Joe Torre, I don't think it's going to be well. I love Man-Ram, but he can be a bit of a distraction. And occasionally distracted. 3. COL Rockies. They are going to surprise everyone this year (even themselves) because by all accounts, they should be in last place, not competing with LA for second place. 4. SF Giants. Ehh. Tim Lincecum is going to have a great year. Unfortunately, he can't pitch every game. 5. SD Padres. It's not going to be pretty, although I'm hoping (as are all their fans) that it's at least a little less embarrassing than last year. Poor Mark Worrell. (snicker)

Come back tomorrow for the post-season and individual awards. And be sure to check out the rest of the UCB's predictions (which are sure to make up for mine).

Predictions 2009: NL Central

All right, before we get started, I have to tell you how much I hate April Fool's Day. I hate it. A lot. I don't like surprises, period, and I don't care for pranks even a little bit. Practical jokes are my nightmares. I don't like being tricked or "fooled" and I really don't like when it happens over and over again in a 24-hour period. I know some people think it's "funny" but it's not. It's the unfunniest thing ever. Ever. I have a good sense of humor. I enjoy dry wit and slapstick comedy as much as the next person. I do not enjoy trickery. Therefore, you will find no hint of foolishness or silliness in the following post. I will not, repeat NOT tell you I think the Cubbies are finally going to go all the way this year, and then jump out from behind the couch yelling "April Fools!" at the top of my lungs to announce that, well, I got you. Some of my fellow bloggers may very well do just that, and more power to them, but I'll be avoiding the entire internet today, as well as anyone in my real life whom I know to be a perpetrator of such "hilarity." Now, with no further delay, here are my completely serious and somber predictions for the NL Central.

(Note: These predictions are based on absolutely nothing substantial or scientific. At best, they represent how I hope the races will turn out. At worst, they are my attempt at shaking things up. If you want more accurate guesstimates, visit some of the other UCB soothsayers.)

1. STL Cardinals. Okay, I'm a Cardinals fan. Did you really expect me to put the Cubs here? Sorry. Besides which, I think the Cards have a real shot at winning this year. I'm not going to list the reasons for fear of jinxing them, but I'll be happy to discuss it once the season is over and everyone is giving me credit for having called it. 2. CHI Cubs. What can I say, they're a pretty good team. During the regular season, at least, they were dominant last year. From what I can tell, they've made moves that will either improve them or, at worst, keep them pretty even. Too bad about that post-season stuff. 3. CIN Reds. They have some good pitching and a little bit of offense. They're better than the Pirates, at any rate. 4. MIL Brewers. Ehh. Last year was their shot and they blew it. I don't see them competing for much of anything this year. 5. PIT Pirates. To be fair, I think they are better than this. 6. HOU Astros. To be fair, I wish they were better than this.

Tomorrow we wrap up the regular season rankings with the NL West. Friday, we'll have post-season and individual awards predictions.

Predictions 2009: NL East

So now we move on to the Senior Circuit. The original. The mack-daddy. (Yeah, sorry about that.) (Note: These predictions are based on absolutely nothing substantial or scientific. At best, they represent how I hope the races will turn out. At worst, they are my attempt at shaking things up. If you want more accurate guesstimates, visit some of the other UCB soothsayers.) And we start things off with the NL East. (Another opportunity for me to alienate fans of other teams.) Before I get officially started, though, I must remind you of a few self-evident truths about the NL East. 1) The Nats are not the best team in baseball. I could elaborate, but I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings. 2) The Phillies are the reigning World Champions. Whatever curses this might carry remains to be seen, but if it's merely a matter of talent, the Phils are destined to have another great year. Those two things, while true for the past, hold little to no bearing over the future. We all know that anything can happen, and often does, and that's what keeps us coming back day after day, year after year.

That being said, here's what I predict:

1. FLA Marlins. They had a great first-half run last year, and they learned a lot from it. They'll win the division by one or fewer games, but the margin doesn't matter. A win is a win is a win, after all.

2. NY Mets. A much improved bullpen (starting with the back end) will take them far, but not far enough to win the division. 3. PHI Phillies. They'll play the spoiler this year, and do what they can to keep the Mets from finishing strong enough to get past the Marlins. 4. ATL Braves. Even though they are working towards freshening things up, they're still an old team and I don't think they'll get back to the playoffs until the turnover is complete. 5. WSH Nationals. Do I really need to explain? Washington fans don't watch for the glory, they watch for the love of the game. At least, that's all I can figure.

See you tomorrow for my NL Central predictions. I know you're dying to see who I have finishing first in that particular division.

Predictions 2009: AL

The American League. Junior circuit. Buckers of tradition. Laughers in the face of history. Whiners about their precious pitchers having to do anything remotely athletic. Let's take a look at how things might shape up this season for our overconfident kid brother. (Note: These predictions are based on absolutely nothing substantial or scientific. At best, they represent how I hope the races will turn out. At worst, they are merely lists wherein I try to remember which teams are actually in certain divisions. I have better uses for my time than paying close attention to the AL, after all. If you want more accurate guesstimates, visit some of the other UCB soothsayers.)

AL East.

The instigators. The (arguably) toughest division in all of baseball. Starting with the Yankees, these teams take up well more than their fair share of the spotlight. What helps me deal with this, though, is the fact that the spotlight doesn't back off just because you're having a "bad hair day" or one of your star players "admits to using performance-enhancing drugs". The good with the bad and all that.

I predict:

1. BOS Red Sox. It's hard to get too creative with this division, although last year was as surprising as anything. I just don't see Tampa repeating, and even with CC and AJ and JC, I don't think the Yankees have quite overcome their own egoes just yet. Besides which, they seem insistent on playing Jeter in an everyday role, and he's just awful. Think of Boston as my "default" pick for this division. 2. NY Yankees. See above. I hate their free-spending ways, but they do have CC. 3. BAL Orioles. They have César now, after all. For this team, he's an improvement. 4. TB Rays. Pennant hangover. Does that apply? 5. TOR Blue Jays. 2018 will be their year.

AL Central.

Much like the NL Central, this division is largely overlooked by the National Media. Is it the unsavory locale? Is it the unappealing location? Is it the unpleasant region? Is it...? Okay, we get it. We don't have a coast. We're stuck in the middle of the country with our cows and our "dirt for sale" and our well insulated mid-sections. That doesn't mean we don't have some good players and competitive teams, but much like your weather, Southern California, some things never change.

I predict:

1. CLE Indians. A-Rey will lead them to the promised land. Plus, they made a few notable acquisitions this off-season, although I can't seem to think of one right now. 2. MIN Twins. I wasn't going to rank them this high, but then I saw Slowey pitch. I had to give them props just for having him in the rotation. 3. CHI White Sox. I can't say anything bad about the Sox, partly because I get a kick out of Guillén, and partly because the black unis scare me. Unfortunately for the South-siders, they're going to come up short again this year. 4. KC Royals. Getting better every year. 5. DET Tigers. Getting worse every year.

AL West.

Really, I don't have much to say about the division that could just as easily be called "Angels 'n stuff". Oh, right, the A's picked up Matt Holliday. That should turn things around for them.... *rolling my eyes*

I predict:

1. LA Angels of Anaheim. They lost K-Rod but picked up Fuentes. Honestly, even without Rodríguez, I think they could have sleep-walked across the finish line last year. 2. TEX Rangers. Ehh. They're in this spot mostly for the sake of argument. Stranger things have happened, you know. 3. OAK Athletics. Oh, and Springer. 4. (white space) Reserved for the Astros* whenever baseball figures out how to divide 30 by six. 5. SEA Mariners. They aren't just going to lie on the floor of the basement of the division anymore, they're going to force MLB to contract the construction of a sub-basement. Mark my words, somehow the Mariners will finish fifth in a four-team race.

So, now that I've properly ticked off fans of almost every AL team, I guess we sit back and watch the season unfold, then meet back here in November and see how close I was. Come back tomorrow for the start of the National League predictions. We'll kick things off with the East, then cover the Central on Wednesday, and the West on Thursday. Friday, we'll pick our playoff favorites and speculate on who will take home all the various hardware. *I don't have any problem with the 'Stros being in our division, but if MLB were to pluck away a team from our abundance, the westernmost city, as you'll note, is Houston. Obviously it wouldn't be the Cardinals.