Predictions 2009: Post-season & Awards

Oooh, the fun part. I mean, sure, the regular season is great, but October's what it's all about, right? And even more so if your team gets to go to the party. Of course, these are also the tougher picks. 162 games gives you a pretty good idea what a team is made of because it doesn't allow for a lot of "luck" or "flukes". A team might have a 10 or 15-game run where they get "hot", but things will pretty much even themselves out over the course of the season. A five-game or seven-game series is a much smaller sample size and doesn't protect as well against streaks and momentum. That means that while you can look at statistics and player quality (and so forth) to guage the possibilties of a team having a good season, extraneous factors are much more likely to figure into the equation when you're talking about the playoffs. That being said, it's still fun to try and guess who will be able to make all those factors work in their favor. I presume we should base our post-season predictions on the division winners we named in previous posts, so I'll start by reminding you of whom I like. (Which begins with me reminding myself.) American League.

Division Winners:

East- BOS Red Sox Central- CLE Indians West- LA Angels of Anaheim* Wild Card: NY Yankees. I really like the Twins (I know, I know), but the East looks to be a stronger division than the Central. And when it comes to the wild card, there is definitely a bubble.

ALDS. BOS vs NYY > BOS LAA vs CLE > CLE ALCS. BOS vs CLE > BOS I wish I could give you more, but until we really know how these teams are going to shape up over the season, it's hard to say who's really better. Based on last year, and going by some of the moves the Angels made in the off-season, I'd say they aren't going far into the post-season. Based on my hatred for the Yankees, I'd say the same thing about them. And when push comes to shove, even if the Indians are "this year's Rays", much like last year's Rays, they just don't have the experience to propel them through October. National League.

Division Winners:

East- FLA Marlins Central- STL Cardinals West- ARI Diamondbacks Wild Card: NY Mets. Sorry. Call me what you want, but I'm not giving it to the Cubs. Maybe that makes my predictions "stupid", but maybe they were "stupid" anyway. Ever think of that? Besides which, the Mets went out and got themselves some serious pitching help, and I think it'll make the difference they were looking for. At least enough to get them this far.

NLDS. STL vs FLA > STL ARI vs NYM > ARI NLCS. STL vs ARI > STL Again, it's hard to know how teams are going to react to the pressure and the situation of being in the playoffs, and how all those other factors are going to affect the games, but knowing what we know, Florida won't beat the Cardinals, and the Mets will crumble early. World Series. STL vs BOS > STL Is this an eerie rematch or what? Well, guess what. I'm siding with vengeance and picking the Cardinals. Don't act so surprised. Well, I guess that about does it. Something else? What? Oooh, that pesky MVP. Okay, but first, don't blame me for making this personal, the BBWAA did that looong ago. AL Most Valuable Player ... Evan Longoria. NL Most Valuable Player ... Albert Pujols. Honestly, he could be out half the season with an injury and still be the MVP. More? How about these? AL Cy Young ... Anthony Reyes. NL Cy Young ... Chris Carpenter. AL Rookie of the Year ... I can't pick because as unfamiliar as I am with the Cardinals' prospects, I'm even more unfamiliar with other NL teams' prospects, nevermind knowing what's going on in the AL farm systems. So if you readers have any suggestions, I'll gladly accept them. Otherwise, we'll just leave it up to the rest of the UCB to predict this award. NL Rookie of the Year ... Colby Rasmus. I'm afraid I'd be tarred and feathered if I picked anyone else. Other awards? Who cares? Well, sports fans, Monday is the big day. Are you ready? Got your tickets/seat on the couch? Opening day is too much hoopla for me to attend personally, but I'll be watching every reasonable minute of it on tv. Of course, I heard rumblings of rain in the forecast for Monday, so keep your fingers crossed and knock on wood and don't change your underwear all weekend, and let's all hope they get a game in. *As strange as the whole "fighting over the Angels" name thing is, I still respect their right to call themselves whatever they want. Sure, it takes me an extra 2.7 seconds to say it, but if that's what makes them happy, then I'll do it.

Predictions 2009: AL

The American League. Junior circuit. Buckers of tradition. Laughers in the face of history. Whiners about their precious pitchers having to do anything remotely athletic. Let's take a look at how things might shape up this season for our overconfident kid brother. (Note: These predictions are based on absolutely nothing substantial or scientific. At best, they represent how I hope the races will turn out. At worst, they are merely lists wherein I try to remember which teams are actually in certain divisions. I have better uses for my time than paying close attention to the AL, after all. If you want more accurate guesstimates, visit some of the other UCB soothsayers.)

AL East.

The instigators. The (arguably) toughest division in all of baseball. Starting with the Yankees, these teams take up well more than their fair share of the spotlight. What helps me deal with this, though, is the fact that the spotlight doesn't back off just because you're having a "bad hair day" or one of your star players "admits to using performance-enhancing drugs". The good with the bad and all that.

I predict:

1. BOS Red Sox. It's hard to get too creative with this division, although last year was as surprising as anything. I just don't see Tampa repeating, and even with CC and AJ and JC, I don't think the Yankees have quite overcome their own egoes just yet. Besides which, they seem insistent on playing Jeter in an everyday role, and he's just awful. Think of Boston as my "default" pick for this division. 2. NY Yankees. See above. I hate their free-spending ways, but they do have CC. 3. BAL Orioles. They have César now, after all. For this team, he's an improvement. 4. TB Rays. Pennant hangover. Does that apply? 5. TOR Blue Jays. 2018 will be their year.

AL Central.

Much like the NL Central, this division is largely overlooked by the National Media. Is it the unsavory locale? Is it the unappealing location? Is it the unpleasant region? Is it...? Okay, we get it. We don't have a coast. We're stuck in the middle of the country with our cows and our "dirt for sale" and our well insulated mid-sections. That doesn't mean we don't have some good players and competitive teams, but much like your weather, Southern California, some things never change.

I predict:

1. CLE Indians. A-Rey will lead them to the promised land. Plus, they made a few notable acquisitions this off-season, although I can't seem to think of one right now. 2. MIN Twins. I wasn't going to rank them this high, but then I saw Slowey pitch. I had to give them props just for having him in the rotation. 3. CHI White Sox. I can't say anything bad about the Sox, partly because I get a kick out of Guillén, and partly because the black unis scare me. Unfortunately for the South-siders, they're going to come up short again this year. 4. KC Royals. Getting better every year. 5. DET Tigers. Getting worse every year.

AL West.

Really, I don't have much to say about the division that could just as easily be called "Angels 'n stuff". Oh, right, the A's picked up Matt Holliday. That should turn things around for them.... *rolling my eyes*

I predict:

1. LA Angels of Anaheim. They lost K-Rod but picked up Fuentes. Honestly, even without Rodríguez, I think they could have sleep-walked across the finish line last year. 2. TEX Rangers. Ehh. They're in this spot mostly for the sake of argument. Stranger things have happened, you know. 3. OAK Athletics. Oh, and Springer. 4. (white space) Reserved for the Astros* whenever baseball figures out how to divide 30 by six. 5. SEA Mariners. They aren't just going to lie on the floor of the basement of the division anymore, they're going to force MLB to contract the construction of a sub-basement. Mark my words, somehow the Mariners will finish fifth in a four-team race.

So, now that I've properly ticked off fans of almost every AL team, I guess we sit back and watch the season unfold, then meet back here in November and see how close I was. Come back tomorrow for the start of the National League predictions. We'll kick things off with the East, then cover the Central on Wednesday, and the West on Thursday. Friday, we'll pick our playoff favorites and speculate on who will take home all the various hardware. *I don't have any problem with the 'Stros being in our division, but if MLB were to pluck away a team from our abundance, the westernmost city, as you'll note, is Houston. Obviously it wouldn't be the Cardinals.